Defence planning is usually associated with the weapons a country needs today. But India is increasingly looking at a different question: what kind of warfare will it have to prepare for 10, 20, or even 25 years from now?
That question was brought into focus by Hon’ble Union Minister of Defence Shri Rajnath Singh, who said India is building defence capabilities by keeping the changing nature of warfare over the next 10, 20 and 25 years in mind. The significance of the statement goes beyond the immediate discussion around defence equipment. It points towards a larger transformation in India’s defence strategy, from simply acquiring platforms and weapons to developing the technology, industrial capacity and research ecosystem needed to create future capabilities.
The Minister has also emphasized that India’s approach to defence must go beyond importing advanced technology and focus increasingly on developing and defining critical defence technologies within the country. His remarks also underline a broader shift in modern warfare, where technology is becoming central to military capabilities and conflicts increasingly extend across multiple sectors
That raises an important question for readers and industry: what does preparing for future warfare actually involve?
The Battlefield Is Becoming More Than Land, Sea and Air
For decades, military capability was largely understood through conventional domains such as armies, fighter aircraft, warships, missiles and artillery. Those capabilities will remain important. But the technology surrounding them is changing rapidly.
Future conflicts are increasingly expected to involve the integration of Artificial Intelligence, Drones and Autonomous Systems, Cyber Operations, electronic warfare, space-based capabilities, secure communications, advanced sensors and data networks. This means that a country’s defence strength will increasingly depend not only on how many weapons it possesses, but also on how effectively its forces can collect information, analyze it, communicate securely and respond quickly. In simple terms, the future battlefield could be as much about information and technology as physical firepower.
India’s own defence planning is already moving in this direction. Recent government statements have highlighted emerging capabilities involving drones, AI, cyber security, electronic warfare, space and quantum technologies.
From Importing Technology To Developing It
Perhaps the most important part of the current shift is the emphasis on technology creation. A country can purchase an advanced platform from another nation, but long-term strategic capability requires deeper expertise: the ability to design systems, develop critical components, modify technologies, maintain them and eventually create the next generation of equipment.
That is why the idea of defence self-reliance is becoming broader than simply replacing imported weapons with Indian-made versions. It increasingly involves developing an ecosystem in which Indian companies, defence public sector undertakings, startups, research organizations and academic institutions can participate in the entire technology cycle.
The government’s defence policy has been moving in this direction through indigenization measures, domestic procurement preferences and greater participation by private industry.
Why The 75% Domestic Procurement Figure Matters
One of the clearest indicators of this industrial shift is the government’s decision to reserve around 75% of the defence capital acquisition budget for procurement from domestic industry.
The Defence Minister has cited a capital acquisition budget of about ₹1.39 lakh crore, with nearly 75% earmarked for domestic procurement. The importance of such a policy extends beyond the companies that receive defence contracts. A major defence platform typically depends on a much larger supply chain involving electronics manufacturers, engineering companies, component suppliers, software developers, precision manufacturers and specialized MSMEs.
Therefore, increasing domestic procurement can potentially create demand across a much wider industrial network. This is where defence policy intersects with India’s broader manufacturing ambitions.
Indigenization Is Moving Deeper Into The Supply Chain
The Positive Indigenization Lists are another important part of this transition. The armed forces have issued five lists covering 509 defence equipment, weapon systems and platforms that are intended to be produced domestically.
But the story does not stop there. The Defence Ministry has also been pursuing indigenization of components, subsystems, spares and other strategically important items through Defence Public Sector Undertakings.
In August 2026, the Department of Defence Production notified a sixth Positive Indigenisation List containing 405 additional strategically important items, including components and subsystems related to aircraft, armoured platforms, warships, missiles and defence electronics.
This is significant because future self-reliance cannot depend only on assembling large platforms in India. A genuinely resilient defence ecosystem also requires domestic capability in the components and technologies underneath those platforms.
AI and Drones Could Change How Militaries Operate
Artificial Intelligence is likely to be one of the technologies that changes defence operations most significantly. AI can potentially assist with processing large volumes of information, identifying patterns, supporting decision-making, analyzing imagery and improving the operation of autonomous systems.
Drones and unmanned platforms are similarly changing the relationship between humans, machines and the battlefield. India has already identified technologies such as remotely piloted airborne vehicles, unmanned aerial systems and AI-based satellite image analysis in its indigenization efforts. The fifth Positive Indigenisation List, for example, included technologies ranging from tactical drones to AI-based satellite image analysis and quantum key distribution systems.
The direction is therefore broader than simply manufacturing more conventional weapons. It is about developing the technological building blocks that could support future military operations.
Cyber, Space And Data Are Becoming Defence Infrastructure
Another important change is that national security is no longer confined to physical borders. A military network, satellite system, communication infrastructure or critical database can become strategically important even when it is thousands of kilometres away from a traditional battlefield.
Cyber security, electronic warfare and space capabilities therefore become part of the wider defence ecosystem. This also explains why defence innovation increasingly overlaps with technologies that have civilian applications. Semiconductors, communications, artificial intelligence, robotics, advanced materials, sensors and quantum technologies can have relevance across both civilian and defence sectors. For India, developing these capabilities domestically can therefore have implications beyond the armed forces.
The Defence Industry Could Become A Technology Ecosystem
Perhaps the biggest change to watch is the widening of India’s defence innovation base. The future defence industry is unlikely to be built only around traditional defence manufacturers. Startups, software companies, electronics manufacturers, engineering firms, universities, research institutions and specialized MSMEs can all contribute to different layers of a defence technology ecosystem.
Government initiatives have increasingly sought to bring these groups into defence innovation. The Ministry of Defence has also highlighted greater participation by industry, startups and academia in defence R&D. Recent government statements said 25% of the defence R&D budget has been opened to industry, startups and academia. That matters because technologies such as AI, autonomous systems and advanced computing evolve faster than traditional military procurement cycles.
A wider innovation base can potentially help defence organizations access technologies being developed outside conventional defence companies.
What Does A 25-year Defence Strategy Really Mean?
It does not mean that India can predict exactly what a battlefield will look like in 2051. Instead, long-term planning is about building capabilities that can adapt as technology and security challenges change.
That distinction is important. The objective is not necessarily to predict the next weapon. It is to create the ability to design, develop, manufacture, upgrade and integrate new technologies when they become necessary. This is where the idea of a future-ready defence ecosystem becomes more meaningful than a simple list of weapons.
India’s defence production has already expanded significantly. The government says annual defence production reached approximately ₹1.78 lakh crores in FY 2025-26, as compared to ₹46,429 crores in 2014, while defence exports crossed ₹38,000 crores.
These figures indicate the scale of the industrial transformation being pursued, although production growth by itself does not answer every question about technological capability or military preparedness.
The Bigger Opportunity May Be Outside The Traditional Defence Sector
For India’s technology and manufacturing industries, the long-term implications could be considerable. A future defence ecosystem will require more than large weapons platforms. It will need electronics, sensors, communication systems, cybersecurity solutions, artificial intelligence, robotics, advanced materials, testing infrastructure and specialized components.
That creates potential space for companies that may not traditionally have considered themselves defence manufacturers. It also means that the success of India’s defence self-reliance drive will depend on how effectively research institutions, large manufacturers, startups and MSMEs connect with the actual requirements of the armed forces.
The Real Test Will Be Technology Ownership
India’s next phase of defence development is therefore likely to be judged not simply by how much equipment is manufactured domestically, but by how much critical technology is actually developed and controlled within the country.
The Defence Minister’s remarks about looking 10, 20 and 25 years ahead highlight precisely this challenge. The defence ecosystem of the future will have to combine military capability with technological depth, industrial resilience and innovation.
For India, the question is no longer only about having the weapons needed for today’s battlefield. It is increasingly about having the scientific, industrial and technological capacity to build what tomorrow’s battlefield demands.
References:
- Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Defence – “Aatmanirbhar Bharat: DDP notifies 6th Positive Indigenisation List of 405 strategically important items,” 18th August 2026.
- Press Information Bureau: “Defence in Union Budget 2026-27: Modernisation, Aatmanirbhar Bharat and Veterans’ Welfare,” 03rd February 2026.
- Ministry of Defence, Annual Report 2024-25
- Ministry of Defence, Annual Report 2025-26
